Sunday, 10 July 2016

Blog Update

I've cleaned up the blog a bit.  I've removed the links to the historical indexing study, the link to the shareholder account holdings, and the combined portfolios link.  If anyone is really interested in what I hold, they can just ask me. I'll be happy to oblige with an answer.  Suffice it to say, for the most part, I hold whatever I typically blog about if my analysis leads me to conclude that the subject security is worth owning.  The portfolios have some long standing holdings that I don't touch, but for the most part, I've sold most of the widely large cap names I held throughout 2015, and I've gradually replaced these holdings with buy and hold ideas that make sense to me.  I was pretty active during the market plunge in February and my regret today (hindsight being 20:20) is that I didn't hold onto some of the purchases I made in February longer.

My 52 week low process led me to buy some really great ideas at close to their 52 week lows, such as Boardwalk Equities and H&R, and CST Brands, but I took profits as they bounced.  This is a constant game of after the fact introspection, and there really is a lot of truth to the old adage of letting your winners run.  Holding onto just these three securities would likely have generated another 7% in return across the accounts (not including dividends).

I don't make concentrated allocation decisions in my portfolios, typically, I allocate between 1% and 5% of assets to an individual security or position.  I realize that after years of being a retail nobody, that I will most likely continue being a retail nobody and not have access to the same level of information and management interaction or candour that professionals have.  This could be a blessing and a curse.  I'm uncomfortable with more than 5%, but as the assets grow due to regular contributions, I have to look at a 5% allocation holistically from an overall portfolio perspective.  1% isn't going to move the needle much, if any.

The portfolios are currently structured as follows:

Total assets under management of $147,808

Cash = 42%
Debentures = 9%
Bonds = 32%
Common stocks = 10%
Preferreds = 7%

I'm always looking for new ideas using a combination of screens, candidates from my 52 week low list work, and catalyst oriented research.  There are a few really good authors I follow on seeking alpha who appear to be a source of objective research.  I also love reading Divestor and Prefblog for outside of the box analysis and thinking.

Final thought, if anyone is interested, I'll be uploading my evaluation models as a googlesheets link to the blog.  I just added my Whistler Blackcomb model (right hand side of the blog).  If anyone wants a copy of my evaluation model in excel, I'd be happy to provide it.








4 comments:

  1. Thoughts on Linamar? It's a rare Canadian non-resources stock trading near 3-year lows. Actually, the whole Canadian auto parts sector (Magna, Exco, Martinrea) is near lows.

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  2. It's funny that you mention Linamar, it showed up on my 52 week low screen a few times and I never dug into researching any of the Canadian auto parts co's, perhaps I should. I wonder if Martinrea makes more sense in terms of possible acquisition target.

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  3. That's a great amount under management brother. Keep it up Daniel. Curious also to know how I make it onto your blog list? :)

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    1. Thanks! Key from here on in is to keep adding fresh capital and not doing anything too stupid (famous last words). I've added your blog to my reading list. Thanks for reading.

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