Thursday, 8 October 2015

Greenblatt Experiment Update October 8th, 2015

Well, to say that I'm in a state of shock and awe would be a complete understatement.

Here are the darts two weeks later:





I actually find these results to be something of a joke, as they fly in the face of any logic, or well thought out selection of securities based on rigorous due diligence or anything remotely resembling analysis on my part.  I simply ran the magicformula.com screen and threw darts like a monkey (maybe I'd be better off being a monkey).

Now, 2 weeks out of 52 weeks is nowhere near enough of a sample of weeks to draw any intelligent conclusions from the above.  Suffice it to say, I will re-emphasize that come next September 2016, I will be in utter shock if the entire portfolio of darts above ends with a one year holding period return of 4% (before dividends).

I also noticed one error in the way I set up the spreadsheet, I should have hard-coded the USD/CAD at inception of dart throwing, I think it was about 1.33 at the time, so I have revised the FX column as it should really be showing FX losses across the board.

Another comment, while I really shouldn't care what SPY does relative to what I do, I do think an overall explanation for the performance of the portfolio above is that SPY is up about 4% since Sep 25th, so the darts seem to have a correlation to SPY (in USD base currency).

I reiterate, that the above is purely an experiment in curiosity and should not be construed (or confused) in any way, shape or form as a recommendation to buy/sell any of the above securities.



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